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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.