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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."